Buyer’s Guide to Vintages October 5th Release

The Wine Industry is Just Fine, Thank You, and Fall-Friendly Flavours
By John Szabo MS, with notes from Megha Jandhyala, David Lawrason and Michael Godel

In Bumpy Waters but Not Going Down

Fall is upon us, and Thanksgiving is around the corner. For this week’s report we bring you a range of fall-friendly favourites from the October 5 Vintages release on the theme, with plenty of options in the satisfying cool-weather range. Of note are a couple of mature wines that have reached their peak savoury-earthy-autumnal drinking windows, primed to hit your table this weekend. Other Turkey-friendly (with cranberry sauce) wines are plentiful in this release including fine local options of gamay and pinot noir, and classic Tuscan sangiovese and more obscure refosco from Italy, while cool weather whites recommended by the WineAlign Crü include chardonnay, chenin blanc and sauvignon blanc. Elsewhere, read my latest report and buyer’s guide: Hungary: Land of Plenty, to learn why this classic European wine-producing nation is poised to make a splash. And for those of you who make a living in the wine industry, I have some good news for you. The keynote speaker at Somm Con, an industry conference in San Diego from where this report originates, reports that the industry is in bumpy waters but it’s not going down, as the headlines would lead you to believe. Read on for the good news.

“In bumpy waters but not going down,” concluded Shilah Salmon, the SVP of marketing for Jackson Family Wines in her keynote speech at Somm Con San Diego entitled, “Changing the Narrative: Using Data to Combat the Negative Narrative and Seize the Opportunity.” Somm Con is an annual gathering of beverage professionals who gather to discuss ideas and taste wines for the betterment of the industry.

Salmon was referring to the beleaguered wine industry, the target of countless doom-and-gloom headlines in the last year. Everywhere one looks there’s another story about declining wine consumption, competition from other recreational drugs and drinks, over-supply of winegrapes and emergency schemes to rip out vineyards, climate chaos affecting growers, the dire health consequences of consuming alcohol, and more sensational click-bait headlines.

While Salmon acknowledged that the wine industry is facing challenging times, she remains positive about the future. The ship is not about to sink. She pointed to other periods in the 1980s and 1990s when many pundits predicted the downfall of the wine industry from various market forces but assures us that it is not as bad now as everyone thinks. “I’m a facts-and-statistics girl,” she told the audience, and proceeded to show a series of slides that tell a different narrative. Jackson Family Wines, the ninth largest wine company in the U.S., has access to a vast amount of retailer data that paints a less gloomy picture for the future of wine.

Salmon first pointed out two separate, if related issues. One is the health of the wine industry, and the other, the health of wine itself. The latter, the impact of wine on one’s health, she only briefly touched upon, pausing only to point out that the World Health Organisation’s declaration that there is no safe level of alcohol consumption is based on flawed studies, as several others have pointed out. “We have mountains of evidence establishing that moderate wine consumption has health benefits,” she said, while acknowledging that, as a wine retailer, her words carry less weight. But she said industry groups and their lawyers are working hard in the background to make the case. The negative impact on wine consumption from the WHO’s statement, and those from other groups, is real and measurable, she said, pointing to the temporary decline in consumption in the U.S. in the 1980s when Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) — a movement she calls neo-prohibitionist — was at its height.

But Salmon preferred to focus her presentation on the other issue: the health of the wine industry itself. And here she was more buoyant. Using U.S. sales statistics, she reported that the value of wine purchased between 2018 and 2024 was up 46%. “Tell me,” she asked, “what other industry in the world worth billions of dollars annually, and with growth of 46% over just six years, would say that they are in crisis?”

The decline most often reported, she said, is in the volume of consumption — this occurred at the low end of the price spectrum, where wineries are in much more trouble. Her statistics demonstrated what the industry has been saying for years: “Consumers are drinking less but better.” During that same 2018–2024 period, sales of “premium” wines — defined as those $10 USD and above — showed positive growth, with the $50+ USD prestige category showing the most robust increase at 9%. “The wine industry has been preaching premiumization for 15 years,” she said, ”and now that it has been premiumized, everyone is freaking out.”

And the overall drop in global wine consumption is explained by the drop mainly in Europe, a trend that is the reverse in most other parts of the world. Since 1991, wine consumption in the U.S. has increased 58%, while per capita consumption in Europe has dropped over the same period by headline-grabbing numbers. “But they [Europeans] were drinking like a bottle a day, which was maybe too much,” Salmon joked. Per capita consumption is simply becoming more balanced around the world.

Salmon also pointed out that in 1962, 62% of adult Americans consumed alcohol; and that in 2023, the percentage remained unchanged. So, it appears, people are not running away from alcohol, it’s just what and how much they’ll pay for it that is shifting over time.

Another concern is that the “younger generations” are moving away from wine. But Salmon showed how, statistically, this has always been the case. “People age into wine,” she demonstrated, with those aged 35–54 representing the highest percentage of wine drinkers. The youngest age-of-majority group has never been a significant contributor to wine sales.

To conclude, Salmon urged those in the wine industry to change the negative news cycles by flipping the narrative. “There are so many positive aspects to wine.” She pointed to the fact that it’s a natural, plant-based product (“100% grapes”), mostly vegan-friendly and gluten free — all things deemed to be of importance to the current generation. Wine is also sugar-free for the most part, despite the misleading campaigns launched by “certain wine companies” claiming the evils of “other” sugar-laden wines, which she declined to name but called “imposters.” She lamented that 48% of consumers now think wine has more sugar than other alcoholic beverages. The misinformation is resonating deeply and affecting sales. But the reality is that the vast majority of wines, especially in the premium segment — and those that are not intentionally sweet like late-harvest wines — are in fact dry.

Also on the positive side, Salmon pointed to recent studies that show an ongoing “relationship renaissance.” That is, a resurgence of people craving human interaction and that wine is, and has always been, a catalyst for bringing people together. She urged wine companies to be more inviting and inclusive with experiential events and shared how La Crema, one of the main JFW brands, sponsors the WNBA and a dozen Pride events across the U.S., among other initiatives to bring new people into the wine world.

She advocated for more experiential events that are “fun, weird, different” and take place in high-energy spaces that meet consumers where they are, and to attach fundraising to events, as the social piece is particularly important to current and future wine drinkers.

Though the wine industry in undoubtedly going through bumpy waters, it seems the ship is resilient enough to stay afloat, and even thrive. It’s more a question of who will stay on board. “The wine industry has been around for 8,000 years, it’s not going anywhere,” Salmon said as she summed up her presentation. “We just need to spread the positive news.”

FYI: We were pleased to be highlighted in the September 21, 2024 Vintages New Releases magazine as a review source that the LCBO trusts. WineAlign is listed among the most respected wine publications in the world. When it comes to wine contests we also run the National Wine Awards of Canada where all wines are tasted blind by our panel of judges.

Source: Vintages Magazine September 21, 2024

Buyer’s Guide October 5: White

Emiliana Novas Gran Reserva Chardonnay 2022, Casablanca Valley, Chile
$17.95, PMA Canada
John Szabo – Perfectly delicious, zesty, ripe but lively chardonnay from one of Chile’s most progressive companies, and all the more appealing for its environmental cred: organic, vegan, sustainable, etc… Drink now.

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